The Black Swan (The Impact of the Highly Improbable) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan Theory is used by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the existence and occurrence of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations.
I found this a fascinating and stimulating book and hard for me to sum up so I have used the author’s words.
Writing in the New York Times, Taleb asserted:
“What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Second, it carries an extreme impact.
Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.”
And I thought you may be interested in the following:
Taleb enumerates ten principles for building systems that are robust to Black Swan Events.
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become Too Big to Fail.
2. No socialization of losses and privatization of gains.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
4. Do not let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence".
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs.
A really challenging book to read; full of complex ideas but well worth it if only for the fact that you have to “think” about stuff. I have a feeling after reading this that we are on the verge of a couple of economic and geopolitical Black Swans!!
Highly recommended.

Paper Towns
John Green

I just want to say here the John Green is a really good writer
All his books have young adults as the central characters but the plots are generally tightly written and characters are well developed.
This book is no exception. It’s the end of high school, the hero, Q, is persuaded by his cool neighbour, Margo Roth Spiegelman, to assist her to carry out several acts of revenge. Then she disappears. Q then spends the rest of the book searching for her assisted by several of his friends. And at the end he is faced with making a choice and losing his friend and lifetime love. It felt real.




An Abundance of Katherines
John Green

Another great book this time about a nerdy prodigy who goes on a road trip with his best friend and ends up in rural America and discovers there is more to relationships than just Katherines. I like the theorem about being dumped and I liked the footnotes. And I really liked his insight at the end about how important stories are and “there’s a place in the brain for knowing what cannot be remembered”. Very funny as well.

Check out John Green at: John's blog

Looking for Alaska
John Green

Another great book and events it covers are so true for teenagers (as I remember it anyway). A teenager goes to boarding school to escape his mundane life at his day school. What befalls him there is more than he expected - friendship, sex, practical jokes, love, tragedy and finally a way out of the labyrinth. The final essay was really powerful and moving and a great summation of the book. It also made me reflect on the lack of freedom that we adults have in our daily lives.

Learning How To Run My Blog

Apologies to all my avid readers!!!
I got lost in the " Now I have a blog what the heck do I do with it" syndrome. And paralysed by the fear of what to use for content and the fear of having to committ to creating posts on a regular basis.
So I have just finished a mutual internet coaching session with my friend Reiner and we have both set a couple of goals. Mine are to post regularly and learn how to get photos and links embedded into my blog. To see the result check out my review on "The Hour I First Believed" - I'm quite pleased with the image and the widget I added to it.
Reiner (on his home page) is going to move the picture up into his banner and add some affiliate links. See his before image here: Reiner's website
Any and all suggestions on blogging are welcome.
Watch out for my regular posts from now on.

The Hour I First Believed

by Wally Lamb

This is a book of two parts. Its the story of a married couple, Caelum and Maureen, and how they dealt with the horrors of Colombine. Part One deals with their move to Colorado and their involvement in the massacre. Part Two recounts their return to Connecticut, the effects of Maureens trauma and Caelums discovery of his family's history.

I found the first part a little heavy going, the second part generated a readable resonance. Overall a good read, it just took a little while to get into it. Mainly because the first part was so bleak and full of human suffering. The second part flowed much better because it offered hope in the midst of suffering and because it gave a glimpse of some early American history.


Needs persistence but...Recommended

http://www.harpercollins.com.au/books/9780732288693/The_Hour_I_First_Believed/index.aspx